Welcome

Thank you for visiting DCstorms.com

I have lived in the Washington Area for over 20 years and have always been fascinated with the weather.  I’ve taken several meteorology courses at the college level and continue to learn about the weather every day. The weather here in the National Capital Region is dynamic, changes rapidly and can be difficult to forecast.  As an avid weather enthusiast I have at times been disappointed by the lack of warning given prior to significant weather events.

Examples:

“Commutageddon”, January 26, 2011

Commuters were stranded in their vehicles on snow-covered roadways during the evening rush hour on January 26, 2011; photo courtesy Jay Wescott NWS

commutageddon

On January 24th at 9:49 pm, I predicted that a strong upper-level low pressure system would bring heavy, wet, snow of 4 to 8″ across the DC Region

https-::dcstorms.com:2011:01:24:dc-storms-upper-level-low-to-bring-heavy-wet-snow-january-2011:

 

The Derecho of June 29th, 2012

At 4:34 on June 29th, I gave advanced warning well before Severe Thunderstorm Watches were issued for what became a widespread damaging wind event across the Mid-Atlantic.

derecho_29june122

 

The Blizzard of January 22, 2016

On January 17th at 8:36 in the morning, I posted “Who Wants 15 to 20″ of Snow later this Week?” well before anyone had put out snowfall maps.

dcstorms-com_snow_accumulation_forecast

No television meteorologist or weather blogger (including me) has a perfect track record. There are many times here in Washington when the forecast models do not agree on storm track and this poses headaches for very talented meteorologists.  I have found that much of the frustration here in the Washington Area stems from weather events where meteorologists are afraid  of “over-promising snowfall accumulations” for fear of being wrong. This conundrum is also known as the “politics of weather forecasting” and as we have seen has at times led to nightmare commutes on our area roadways.

The goal of DCstorms.com is to provide analysis and insight of what I am seeing in the forecast models ahead of time (when I have time to actually sit down and put out a weather post). If you have any suggestions, comments or questions about the weather or my website please drop me a line.

 

 

22 thoughts on “Welcome”

  2. BD

    Hi Tim. I just reviewed the weather for February and March 2020 via AccuWeather. It does not appear likely that Washington DC and Northern VA will have any significant snowstorms. 😦

  4. B W

    Hi Tim,
    Thank you for continuing to provide forecasts and updates unencumbered by the politics of weather. You should follow the school districts on Facebook and watch what happens when the official forecasters miss it.
    I share your information on Facebook to supplement the official weatherguess and it seems to be well received. So keep up the good work, we enjoy it very much!

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  9. GT

    Tim,

    There are those of us at the office who offer snow dances throughout each winter asking Chione, goddess of snow, to turn your predictions of heavy and deep snow accumulations into reality allowing us a day or two off from work! Additionally, I reverently fire up my 22″ deluxe two-stage, multi-speed (with hand warmer grips and adjustable spot lights) snow blower revving the motor out of respect at the first sight of flurries hoping to encourage those little guys to bring all their friends.

    Donning our hats, boots, and gloves with sleds at the ready, we await your next prediction!

    Your faithful snow loving follower

  11. Aaron

    Thank you for clear, concise and thoughtful forecasts. I plow snow in NOVA and have to say you are one of my top three forecasters when it comes to winter weather. I quit watching/listening to Bob Ryan long ago. It’s you, Bastardi and Margusity. Thanks again!

  12. Rob

    Great site, Tim! You do a wonderful job of presenting your analysis in clear and well-thought out logic. Keep up the great work.

  13. Julia

    Hi Tim, thank you for all of your work this winter. And congratulations on being the only source to get yesterday’s storm right. You have really helped my astraphobia (yes, there is such a thing) by helping me to appreciate, respect, and understand weather. After having three trees land on my house in 2010, and getting caught on Connecticut Ave. in the derecho, I’m especially concerned about severe thunderstorms. I continue to spread the word about your site. Thank you!

  15. Anonymous

    Really enjoy and appreciate the information you have provided Tim this winter season. I stumbled across your site and have checked in pretty consistently ever since. I appreciate the in depth information and analysis you provide. Very impressive. I find your analysis to be more informative than the local weather providers. Keep up the excellent work!

  16. Anonymous

    Congratulations on being the most accurate of any other weather source. Thank you for explaining the models. I’ve learned a lot since discovering your site and have passed it on to everyone I know. I wish I’d known about you during the derecho.

  18. Bryan

    Hi Tim. Great site! Frankly I don’t go anywhere else. I truly appreciate your explanations of the ‘why’. Really insightful. Nice job and keep it up!!

  19. cek260

    I like your site (or rather insight)… it’s gotta be a lot to keep up, but when you do update it, it’s a good read.

  20. Ed

    Hi Tim. When it comes to weather prediction, I know nothing, but have always followed the forecast for the Washington area over the last 40 years. You are correct saying that it is generally difficult to predict the major storms. I’ve found no one that seems to get it right consistently. I’ve used three sites for the last ten years, but have recently added yours because I like the very local detail. Thanks for putting out the effort. Keep up the great work.

  21. Garry

    Thanks for taking the time and caring about getting the forecasts right. Oh and keep the 24 inch snowfalls to a minimum this winter.

  22. Dave

    You do a great job..love your accuracy. Thanks for taking the time to give us these great weather updates. I look here first for our local DC weather. Have waited for the cold cycle to return…would love to see some deep snow here again.

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