Tuesday Update: Major Snow Storm for Some, Major Ice Storm for Others?

This is a very low confidence forecast as the latest forecast models continue to indicate a more inland track of the low pressure system which is increasing the threat of sleet and freezing rain and drastically cutting down on snowfall accumulations! My map below includes Snow, Sleet (frozen rain drops) and Freezing Rain.

Any deviation in track of the area of low pressure further to the west or back to the east will have a drastic impact on whether we are digging out from snow or sleet (or both), or losing power from ice accretion from freezing rain.

Here’s a look at the latest forecast models and what they are showing for potential snowfall accumulations:

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Saturday Evening Update on Sloppy Sunday

The latest forecast models all show a period of moderate to heavy precipitation moving into the Washington Region on Sunday afternoon and continuing through the evening before tapering off just after midnight on Monday. Temperature profiles are modest for snow in the immediate D.C. Area where I would expect at most a coating to one inch.

The northern Shenandoah Valley to Leesburg and Baltimore will likely pick up one to three inches of snow with four to six inches (Winter Storm Warning Criteria = 5″ +) across northern Loudoun county in Northern Virginia northeastward toward the Pennsylvania State line.

Latest Short Range North American Model: Future-Cast Radar Sunday 8am through Monday 4am

Latest Short Range North American Model: Possible Snow Accumulation through 4am Monday

Behind this system the story will be BITTER COLD with Record Low Temperatures, especially in areas that receive snow pack.