Updated Snow Map for Pathetic Overrunning Event

Another pathetic weather event for the miserable snow-hole of DC this season. Everything that could go wrong with this event has. Sleet and Rain will mix with the snow this evening across the DC and Baltimore Metro and all snow (surprise surprise) falls across northern Maryland, but even there, 3″ of accumulation looks like the most they will see.

Further south into the DC Area, by the time temperatures cool enough for snow — the precipitation is out of here (shocker).

In north-central Virginia (Orange and Spotsy counties) across the Potomac river into southern Maryland where Winter Storm Watches are currently posted for the second round of potential snow on Thursday night into Friday … I give it about a 50/50 shot that the moisture will actually make it that far north as the European model has continued to slide that axis of moisture further south with each run.

 


How Much Snow Do I Think Will Accumulate?

The “prolonged” — ‘storm’ being advertised (if you can call it that) from Wednesday evening through Friday morning is a classic over-running event.  Over running occurs where warm air glides on top of cooler air at the surface causing condensation and precipitation. It is a weather scenario that typically ends up being a snooze fest of intermittent light snow, not a heavy snow that accumulates quickly. Sleet may mix in at times along and south of Interstate 66 and then we will likely have prolonged lulls in activity during the day on Thursday and then again on Friday morning when the heavier moisture looks to escape south of DC.

Every model I am looking at has the textbook look of a bust for DC. Temperatures look to be marginal at best cutting down what is already looking like pathetic SLR (snow liquid ratios).

The system I am more interested in arrives next Tuesday which will be coming from the south with ample moisture.


Accumulation Map Posted for Sunday’s Heavy Wet Snow Storm

Snow will develop from southwest to northeast during the pre-dawn hours early Sunday morning.  Snow may fall heavily at times between 3AM and 11AM Sunday before tapering off and ending as flurries between 12 and 3PM.

Due to the overnight timing and heavier nature of the precipitation, this will be one of those wet snows that cover all untreated surfaces and will be great for making snowmen and snowballs.

In a rather rare turn of events, it appears that the Metropolitan Area has the best chance of remaining all Snow and receiving the heaviest accumulations.  Sleet may mix in with the snow across southern Maryland and the northern neck of Virginia.

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