Winter is not over by a long-shot.  We will once again need to monitor the coast as an area of low pressure may form along a stalled frontal boundary on Thursday or Friday of the upcoming week.  Most of the models currently take this system well out to sea.

The GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System; image above, courtesy weatherbell.com) models show one bullish run out of 20 (currently very low chance of something impacting our area) but some of the other ensemble runs have a dusting to an inch falling.  One thing is for certain, it will get much colder behind the cold front on Wednesday.

Next time frame to watch:  I am very interested in the time period between February 10th and President’s Day for our next chance of a crippling snow storm somewhere on the eastern seaboard. 

The two images above are showing the upper level pattern at 500 mb (jet stream level).  Red colors indicate blocking areas of high pressure and blue/purple areas represent deep troughs (dips in the jet stream).

To get a massive east coast storm you need a massive ridge near Alaska/west coast of the United States and blocking over the North Atlantic (Greenland).  A deep trough may be forming over the central/eastern United states during this time frame spawning one hell of a storm that may ride up the eastern seaboard.

Bottom Line:  February 10 through President’s Day is too far away to focus on specifics in the ensemble models but this is historically a time when the Nation’s Capital has been slammed with crippling storms (around President’s Day).