Scattered Storms Possible Sunday Afternoon

Scattered Storms Possible Sunday Afternoon

While the Washington Area isn’t technically in a drought, the dog days of summer aren’t helping out our local lawns. There may be some relief during the middle portion of next week when a potent disturbance crosses our region during peak afternoon heating touching off some more widespread showers and storms.

In the meantime, Sunday will be another sizzler with highs reaching the upper 90s. The image below (courtesy Pivitol Weather) is from the latest high-resolution North American Model showing a line of scattered storms approaching the Blue Ridge during the afternoon hours and possibly surviving the trip to the interstate 95 corridor.

Storms Most Likely Wednesday and Thursday

The image below shows vorticity (spin) in the atmosphere crossing our area Wednesday afternoon and evening. The darker orange “line” in the image below moving eastward out of Ohio into PA, WV, MD and eventually northern Virginia should provide enough lift to induce more numerous showers and thunderstorms.  Another disturbance may cross again on Thursday touching off some showers and storms.

Upper Level Ridge May Break Down Late Week across Mid-Atlantic Coast

The upper level ridge of high pressure responsible for sinking air and extreme heat may begin to retrograde westward next weekend allowing for more of a northwesterly flow aloft.  If this materializes our region may see temps relax with highs near 90 and a chance of showers and storms as opposed to dry, hot conditions.

Five-day Heat Wave Likely as Upper Level Ridge dominates the Continental US

High Pressure will be strengthening aloft producing sinking air and allowing for a five to seven-day stretch of temperatures at or above 90 degrees.  The peak of the heat wave will likely arrive just in time for the fourth of July with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 90s Monday through Thursday.

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Cooling Down Late Week but Indian Summer to Return

Precipitation: The image below (courtesy NOAA) shows the thirty-day departure from average with much of the Washington Region experiencing rainfall deficits of 1 to 3 inches.

The extended forecast models keep our area under the influence of high pressure through the next 7 to 14 days.  High pressure will begin delivering much cooler air on Thursday evening through early next week with highs remaining in the 70s and lows dipping into the 50s.  Some of our far outer exurbs could even dip into the 40s later this weekend.

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