Timing Today’s Severe Weather Threat

A majority of the high-resolution forecast models today show a squall line developing across West Virginia and pushing through the Washington Region between 3pm and 7pm. 

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Tracking a Squall Line Expected to Push through the Washington Area Late This Afternoon

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Washington Region under a slight risk for severe storms this afternoon.

A strong cold front will push through the Washington Area between 4 and 7PM ushering in the coldest air of the season.  The high-resolution forecast models have consistently depicted a developing squall line out ahead of the cold front.

The image below (courtesy WxBell) shows the squall line pushing through the Washington Area between 23z (5pm) and 00z (7pm).

In addition to torrential rain, the squall line will have the potential to produce cloud to ground lightning and wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph.

Feeling More Like January and First Widespread Hard Freeze

Wednesday will be the coldest day of the upcoming work week as high temperatures struggle to rise out of the middle 40s in Washington.

Wednesday night will feature clear skies and calm winds — perfect conditions for radiative cooling.  Temperatures on Wednesday night will tumble into the middle to upper 20s in the suburbs with downtown Washington dropping to near 30 degrees.

Several Tornadic Thunderstorms Likely Monday

Get ready for a wild Monday around the Washington Area as the atmospheric conditions are forecast to be conducive to producing several tornadic thunderstorms. A strengthening low-level jet stream and increasing wind shear (winds that change direction with height) will be conducive for the development severe thunderstorms, some of which could produce several tornadoes.

The latest North American Model (NAM) indicates that the first period of thunderstorms may impact the Washington Region between 5 and 11 in the morning (image below, courtesy Tropical Tidbits).

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