Monday Update on Wednesday’s Winter Storm

The forecast models continue to disagree on the exact track of the coastal storm and how quickly it strengthens. For those of you who wanted all snow in the immediate Metro Area, the models have trended toward a more inland track bringing the rain/snow line right into the 95 corridor. There is still time for models to adjust the track further east and any shift  eastward even by 25 miles would have a significant impact on how much snow, sleet and freezing rain falls in your neighborhood. For those of you in southern Maryland this is looking like mainly a rain event.

The latest North American Model (NAM)

The NAM model (image below courtesy Tropical Tidbits) tracks the storm system from near Raleigh, NC toward the NJ coastline and depicts a mix on Wednesday changing over to rain with little to no snowfall accumulations across the interstate 95 corridor. 

If the above track verifies, there would be little to no snowfall accumulation across the 95 corridor!

The Global Forecast System (next image, courtesy Tropical Tidbits) has been the most bullish for a significant accumulating snow in DC because it keeps the track of this storm system off of the NC coastline before it moves northeast and eventually out to sea. 

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Update on Next Week’s Potential Major Winter Storm

An area of low pressure will move out of the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday toward the spine of the Appalachians, meanwhile a coastal storm is forecast to develop off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Wednesday.    The ensemble forecast models are showing an increasing threat of a high-impact winter storm for portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday.

The image below (courtesy WxBell) shows the latest European Ensemble model and depicts quite a spread in placement of the coastal storm on Wednesday of next week. Notice some of the red “Ls” on the map below are located near Hatteras, NC while others are located just off of the Delmarva coast. The exact track will be key regarding how much cold air locks in across the populated 95 corridor from Fredericksburg to Washington and Baltimore.

Model accuracy will begin to increase once the upper level energy that will be responsible for the development of the surface lows actually makes landfall across the west coast of the United States on Monday morning.  There are not enough ocean buoys recording current weather data that the models rely upon for an accurate forecast (garbage in = garbage out). If your mathematical equation has inaccurate input data, the output, or solution will be inaccurate.

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