Much Needed Rainfall for Parts of the DC Region Late Tonight through Sunday

The DC Region could use some widespread rain as not everyone has been blessed with receiving some of the heavier rainfall totals associated with the scattered summertime thunderstorms of late.

The latest future-cast radar image below (timestamp in top left corner, courtesy PivotalWx) shows showers and thunderstorms impacting areas mainly along and east of the Interstate 95 corridor late tonight through Sunday.

How Much Rain Could Fall in Your Backyard? 

The latest European forecast model indicates that the best chance of some substantial rainfall (an average of one inch or more) is more likely to occur along a line from Charlottesville VA to Dulles Airport, northeastward to Baltimore-Washington International Airport (points south and east).

The High-Resolution NAM model agrees with the European Model

Thankfully there appears to be additional chances for some rainfall during the middle portion of next week.

 


Big Changes Possible Late Week as Powerful Nor’easter May Threaten Mid-Atlantic Coast

Last week I warned that the upper-level pattern was showing signs of becoming blocked and a pattern change to below- average temperatures is likely the second half of April across much of the eastern United States.

Potent Nor’easter May Impact Mid-Atlantic and New England Friday and Saturday

A very potent upper-level low pressure system depicted in the forecast model above (courtesy pivotal weather) will slide across the northern Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday, likely spawning the development of a coastal storm (Nor’easter) on Friday.

Depending upon the exact track of this system wet snow may accumulate in spots from the Alleghenies to the Poconos with a cold rain, gusty winds, and temperatures running twenty degrees below average (or more) for the lower elevations.

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Timing Tonight’s Thunderstorms

Enough sunshine broke through the clouds today across the Piedmont of Virginia and Maryland away from the water to allow for destabilization of the atmosphere.  The high resolution forecast models suggest a steady rain with embedded thunderstorms are likely across the Washington Area late this evening through the overnight.

The image above (courtesy Pivotal weather) shows a broken line of thunderstorms approaching Washington’s western suburbs between 9pm and midnight with the bulk of the steadiest rain forecast to exit the region on Sunday morning.  Another line of showers and storms may approach the DC Area on ….

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