Snow Map for Spring Storm

Snowfall Potential through Friday Afternoon

Snowfall Potential through Friday Afternoon

The latest forecast models are surprisingly bullish with snowfall accumulations Thursday night & Friday.  Several hours of moderate to heavy snow is likely between 4 and 10 AM Friday.

In the immediate Metro Area I expect a general 1 to 2″ of snow on grassy surfaces.

The northern and western suburbs can expect 2 to 4″ of snow on grassy surfaces with slick travel conditions on untreated roadways during the morning rush hour.

Elevations above 1500 feet including the Blue Ridge, Bull Run Mountains, Sugarloaf, Catoctins, and locations across northern Maryland could pick up over 4 inches of snow with this storm.

Snow will gradually change over to rain across much of the region during the afternoon hours. Snow will hang on the longest across northern Maryland. There will likely be some delays and closings in the typical colder locations on Friday morning.


Watching for a Possible Nor’easter Next Week

If you are a kid and are dreaming of a sled-worthy snowfall, a skier hoping for some fresh powder, or would just like to see something other than ice, cold rain, or very light snowfalls … the pattern in the upper atmosphere may finally be moving in your favor next week. 

GFS shows a possible storm forming during the middle portion of next week.

GFS (Global Forecast Model) shows a possible storm forming during the middle portion of next week.

The jet stream patterns across North America are directly impacted by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific North American (PNA) ridge and Arctic Oscillation (AO).  These three indexes are all currently trending in a direction that favors a ridge over the west coast & a trough in the east (positive PNA) blocking over the North Atlantic (negative NAO) and cold air moving south out of Canada (negative AO).

NAVGEM also shows some kind of coastal storm forming during mid-week.

NAVGEM also shows some kind of coastal storm forming during mid-week.

If the NAO index drops to a negative one, this will be the lowest this index has been so far this winter and is indicative of more pronounced blocking over the North Atlantic/Greenland/Eastern Canada.  This blocking allows storm systems that form along the east coast to slowly move along the coast instead of quickly moving out to sea. 

ECMWF model also shows blocking and a trough getting locked off along the Mid-Atlantic coast line.

ECMWF model also shows blocking and a trough getting locked off along the Mid-Atlantic coast line.

*The forecast models are now hinting that a storm may form off of the Mid-Atlantic coast during the middle portion of next week.  This upper level pattern bares watching and I will post updates if necessary as the forecast models iron out a track*