Tuesday Update: Major Snow Storm for Some, Major Ice Storm for Others?

This is a very low confidence forecast as the latest forecast models continue to indicate a more inland track of the low pressure system which is increasing the threat of sleet and freezing rain and drastically cutting down on snowfall accumulations! My map below includes Snow, Sleet (frozen rain drops) and Freezing Rain.

Any deviation in track of the area of low pressure further to the west or back to the east will have a drastic impact on whether we are digging out from snow or sleet (or both), or losing power from ice accretion from freezing rain.

Here’s a look at the latest forecast models and what they are showing for potential snowfall accumulations:

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A Much Warmer than Average March?

After an extremely challenging forecast and some “not so pleasant comments” from a few folks (who I suspect blindly follow some of the “expert” month to month forecasts from another website) I will remind them that I am well aware that my snow map was a bust across the metro region, but I’m sure that “the love” can be shared equally for a lot of very talented folks in the meteorology business.

  • For example my Weather Channel app went from “8 to 12” to “3 to 5” to “8 to 12” to “1 to 3” back to “5 to 8” and then back down to “1 to 3” in about a 48 hour period, so if you want to blast my snowfall map… go right on ahead. There’s lot’s of “love” to go around.  I love the Weather Channel, their content, their meteorologists, their winter storm experts… don’t get me wrong… I have watched them ever since I was a child… huge fan of them (always will be). The point is that this storm was definitely trending west in track and exactly  how far west that mid-level nose of warmer air would end up (responsible for the heavy sleet) was extremely hard to pin down.
  • What I am not a fan of is people who predict “A much warmer than average March with not much rain or snow ” on February 27th (March is not typically a month of steady temperatures): https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/02/27/we-predict-a-much-warmer-than-normal-march-with-not-much-rain-or-snow/?utm_term=.3f05502364d3

Fast Forward to today:

  • 90% of our blossoms may not bloom and up to a foot of snow just fell in parts of Frederick County Maryland with 4 to 8 inches in Loudoun county and 1 to 3″ in DC.

Why did I predict a high chance that OPM would close?

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