Update on Today’s Major Winter Storm | Watching Freezing Rain Potential Closely

After looking at the latest forecast models, confidence continues to remain low in regards to how much sleet and or freezing rain falls from the Blue Ridge and Catoctin mountains eastward toward the western suburbs of Baltimore and Washington. “The Devil is in the Details” and there will be a lot of “now-casting” going across these areas as everything will depend on temperature profiles.  I’m most concerned about today’s freezing rain potential (more below). 

The image below (courtesy WxBell) is the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model showing the future-cast precipitation type through the duration of this storm. Blue represents snow, orange represents sleet and pink represents freezing rain.

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Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Monday Afternoon

Steady rain will begin falling across the DC Region Sunday night as a warm front lifts northward through our area.  On Monday the DC Area will be out ahead of a strong cold front and southerly winds will allow temperatures to soar into the upper 60s and lower 70s!

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Monday Afternoon

Instability will increase on Monday with a low-level jet stream strengthening overheard. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms may push through the Metro Area on Monday afternoon containing damaging winds and very heavy rainfall. A few isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out either.

Feeling more like December

As the storm system pulls away Monday evening a much colder air mass will being to infiltrate the Mid-Atlantic. Snow will break out across the Allegheny highlands including in Garrett county Maryland where accumulating snow is likely.

The latest European model below shows how much snow may fall across the Midwest and Appalachians through Wednesday evening.

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Travel Alert: Blizzard Conditions, Severe Thunderstorms and High Winds Threaten East this Weekend

Those of you with travel plans this upcoming weekend need to pay close attention to the forecast across the eastern United States. Several disturbances in the jet stream are forecast to merge (phase) together across the Midwest producing a potential blizzard with heavy rain, high winds and even some tornadoes along the eastern side of the storm’s track. Snow could even accumulate across portions of the Mid South and southern Appalachians.

If the current track of this system verifies, the big cities from DC to Boston would receive very heavy rain and high winds. Severe thunderstorms may also pose a threat of tornadoes in some areas (to be determined).

The image below (courtesy Pivotal Weather) shows the latest European Forecast model of how this storm could pan out:

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