Monday Update on Wednesday’s Winter Storm

The forecast models continue to disagree on the exact track of the coastal storm and how quickly it strengthens. For those of you who wanted all snow in the immediate Metro Area, the models have trended toward a more inland track bringing the rain/snow line right into the 95 corridor. There is still time for models to adjust the track further east and any shift  eastward even by 25 miles would have a significant impact on how much snow, sleet and freezing rain falls in your neighborhood. For those of you in southern Maryland this is looking like mainly a rain event.

The latest North American Model (NAM)

The NAM model (image below courtesy Tropical Tidbits) tracks the storm system from near Raleigh, NC toward the NJ coastline and depicts a mix on Wednesday changing over to rain with little to no snowfall accumulations across the interstate 95 corridor. 

If the above track verifies, there would be little to no snowfall accumulation across the 95 corridor!

The Global Forecast System (next image, courtesy Tropical Tidbits) has been the most bullish for a significant accumulating snow in DC because it keeps the track of this storm system off of the NC coastline before it moves northeast and eventually out to sea. 

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Dicey Monday Morning Commute

A period of snow will fall during the pre-dawn hours on Monday with accumulations likely across the colder northern and western suburbs of Washington (mainly along and north of interstate 66). Once rush hour concludes, snow will have mixed with or changed to sleet, freezing rain or plain rain as temperatures climb into the mid 30s.

Freezing rain, sleet and snow will likely remain the predominant precipitation type across the sheltered valleys well north and west of Washington and Baltimore (Frederick county Virginia to Carroll county Maryland) through at least the mid-afternoon hours.

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