Tuesday Update: Major Snow Storm for Some, Major Ice Storm for Others?

This is a very low confidence forecast as the latest forecast models continue to indicate a more inland track of the low pressure system which is increasing the threat of sleet and freezing rain and drastically cutting down on snowfall accumulations! My map below includes Snow, Sleet (frozen rain drops) and Freezing Rain.

Any deviation in track of the area of low pressure further to the west or back to the east will have a drastic impact on whether we are digging out from snow or sleet (or both), or losing power from ice accretion from freezing rain.

Here’s a look at the latest forecast models and what they are showing for potential snowfall accumulations:

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First Winter Storm of Season Thursday | Snow, Sleet and Freezing Rain (Ice) Accumulations

Snow, Sleet or Freezing Rain will begin falling on Thursday morning across the Washington Region, mainly along and west of interstate 95. Freezing rain will likely change to rain during the mid-morning hours (9 – 10am) in DC (points south and east) as temperatures will likely climb into the middle 30s.

Our northern and western suburbs (Montgomery, Fairfax, Prince William, Loudoun counties) may hold on to Freezing Rain through the early afternoon hours where a tenth of an inch of ice accretion is likely on untreated and elevated surfaces.

Counties along and west of the Blue Ridge will receiveĀ  their first significant ice storm of the season where upwards of a quarter of an inch could accumulate. Scattered power outages are likely in these areas as there are still some leaves remaining on the trees.

Latest High Resolution Model:

Places like Hagerstown, Winchester and the panhandle of WV could pick up 2 to 5″ of snow before a change over to sleet and freezing rain.