Tuesday Update: Major Snow Storm for Some, Major Ice Storm for Others?

This is a very low confidence forecast as the latest forecast models continue to indicate a more inland track of the low pressure system which is increasing the threat of sleet and freezing rain and drastically cutting down on snowfall accumulations! My map below includes Snow, Sleet (frozen rain drops) and Freezing Rain.

Any deviation in track of the area of low pressure further to the west or back to the east will have a drastic impact on whether we are digging out from snow or sleet (or both), or losing power from ice accretion from freezing rain.

Here’s a look at the latest forecast models and what they are showing for potential snowfall accumulations:

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Threat of Heavy Rain Shifts as Tropical Storm Arthur Threatens Outer Banks

Tropical Storm Warnings Issued for the Outer Banks of North Carolina

Tropical Storm Arthur has now formed and the forecast for the week ahead in the Washington Area has improved substantially. However, the risk of rain has now shifted to later in the week which may also impact at least part of the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend.

The latest European Ensemble model below (courtesy Pivotal Weather) shows the blocking area of high pressure (bright red colors) holding strong over eastern Canada and nosing southward across coastal New England and the Mid-Atlantic through much of the upcoming work week.  This area of high pressure is slowing down the eastward progression of the cut-off low pressure system (blue circle over Tennessee). The key to the forecast in D.C. is how soon the area of high pressure breaks down and how quickly the cut off low pressure system weakens.

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