Here we go again! Another system will slide through the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday producing some very heavy rain in a short period of time. The image below from the latest European Forecast Model (courtesy Pivotal Weather) shows a band of some very heavy rainfall (and embedded thunderstorms) moving through during the early morning hours across our western mountain zones and into the metro area during the mid to late morning hours.
Track:
Tropical Depression Florence should begin its turn toward the north tonight and eventually track more to the northeast on Monday. The latest spaghetti charts below show some uncertainty in exactly how close the center of circulation will pass to the DC Region (as a turn toward the east north-east is possible). Wind shear is forecast to increase during the afternoon hours across the Washington Region on Monday as will the risk of severe thunderstorms, some of which could produce tornadoes.
A powerful cold front will push through the Washington Area on Sunday evening. A Squall Line (strong line of thunderstorms with very heavy rain and gusty winds) will likely be accompanied with the passage of the cold front.
