Models Holding Steady on Accumulating Snow Sunday

What a great way to ring in February, the snowiest month of the winter (on average) here in the National Capital Region. The European ensemble models are currently forecasting a 3 to 6″ snowfall across our area on Sunday.  Some of the deterministic forecast models drop even more snow than that (upwards of 8 to 10″).  This storm system would impact our area Sunday evening through Monday noon, and if there are no changes to the current forecast there would be widespread closings on Monday as we dig out from our first major winter storm of the season.

Latest GFS Model drops 3 to 6" of snow across the DC Area. Image courtesy: weatherbell.com.

Latest GFS Model drops 3 to 10″ of snow across the DC Area. Image courtesy, weatherbell.com.

Latest European Model drops 3 to 6" of snow across the DC Area. Image courtesy: weatherbell.com.

Latest European Model drops 3 to 10″ of snow across the DC Area. Image courtesy, weatherbell.com.

Latest Canadian Model drops 3 to 6" of snow across the DC Area. Image courtesy: weatherbell.com.

Latest Canadian Model drops 3 to 6″ of snow across the DC Area. Image courtesy, weatherbell.com.

The European Forecast ensembles predicted one inch of snow accumulation in downtown DC during the Monday/Tuesday storm system. So given that the same ensembles are predicting 3 to 6″, I think for now that is a good estimate of potential accumulations.

Several forecast models plunge our temperatures below zero behind this system. It is worth mentioning now that there is an increased threat of bitterly cold temperatures behind this storm system.  For example, the European forecast model drops Dulles International Airport to 3 below zero (actual air temperature) next week… Winter is just beginning.