October Surprise? Watching the Tropics Very Closely!


The image above is showing the American suite of medium range forecast models, known as the Global Forecast System (GFS).  This particular model is an ensemble run (notice all of the various positions of little red and blue numbers) which shows various potential placements of low (red) and high (blue) pressure systems in the future.

The time frame on this latest run is showing the current forecast from Monday October 3 through Tuesday October 5th.  October is notorious for powerful hurricanes to form in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico and with troughs (dips in the jet stream) becoming more prominent as we head into Autumn we need to be monitoring the tropics closely.

I don’t wish a hurricane on anyone but it will be interesting to see if we can wipe out this recent dry weather with the leftovers of a tropical system before our Fall foliage potentially becomes at risk of being dull due to the recent dry stretch of weather.

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Past Thirty Day Rainfall Departure From Average


Most of our area could use a 2 to 4″  soaking of rain to get out of the current dry spell that most of us have experienced over the past 30 days. The image above (courtesy NOAA) shows 30 day rainfall departure from average across the Washington Region.

The areas that have received most of the rain this month have been mainly across upper Montgomery county, Baltimore City and its eastern suburbs and portions of north-central Virginia and southern Maryland.

Expect another hot Wednesday before a mainly dry cold front passes tomorrow evening.  Thursday will feature another spectacular day with sunshine and low humidity.  Then the humidity will make a come back for the weekend out ahead of our next cold front which should arrive (hopefully) during the peak heating on Sunday.  If the front slides through during that time, it will be our best shot at some more widespread showers and thunderstorms.