Timing Today’s Severe Weather Threat

A majority of the high-resolution forecast models today show a squall line developing across West Virginia and pushing through the Washington Region between 3pm and 7pm. 

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Monday Update on Wednesday’s Winter Storm

The forecast models continue to disagree on the exact track of the coastal storm and how quickly it strengthens. For those of you who wanted all snow in the immediate Metro Area, the models have trended toward a more inland track bringing the rain/snow line right into the 95 corridor. There is still time for models to adjust the track further east and any shift  eastward even by 25 miles would have a significant impact on how much snow, sleet and freezing rain falls in your neighborhood. For those of you in southern Maryland this is looking like mainly a rain event.

The latest North American Model (NAM)

The NAM model (image below courtesy Tropical Tidbits) tracks the storm system from near Raleigh, NC toward the NJ coastline and depicts a mix on Wednesday changing over to rain with little to no snowfall accumulations across the interstate 95 corridor. 

If the above track verifies, there would be little to no snowfall accumulation across the 95 corridor!

The Global Forecast System (next image, courtesy Tropical Tidbits) has been the most bullish for a significant accumulating snow in DC because it keeps the track of this storm system off of the NC coastline before it moves northeast and eventually out to sea. 

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Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Monday Afternoon

Steady rain will begin falling across the DC Region Sunday night as a warm front lifts northward through our area.  On Monday the DC Area will be out ahead of a strong cold front and southerly winds will allow temperatures to soar into the upper 60s and lower 70s!

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Monday Afternoon

Instability will increase on Monday with a low-level jet stream strengthening overheard. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms may push through the Metro Area on Monday afternoon containing damaging winds and very heavy rainfall. A few isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out either.

Feeling more like December

As the storm system pulls away Monday evening a much colder air mass will being to infiltrate the Mid-Atlantic. Snow will break out across the Allegheny highlands including in Garrett county Maryland where accumulating snow is likely.

The latest European model below shows how much snow may fall across the Midwest and Appalachians through Wednesday evening.

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