March Out Like a Lion

The upcoming Easter weekend is looking stunning with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to near 70 degrees.  But first we have to get through a rather rainy Wednesday and January-like temperatures on Thursday and Friday.

The latest high-resolution NAM model (image above, courtesy Pivotal Weather) shows widespread showers with some embedded thunder beginning around 1pm on Wednesday and continuing through the tail end of the evening rush hour.

An arctic front will then approach the DC Area on Wednesday night while a strong area of low pressure develops and rides northward along the front changing rain over to snow in our western zones. Some snow may even mix…

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Welcome Pattern Change this Week

After one of the driest starts to July in recorded history, there is some welcome relief in sight as the pattern across the eastern United States begins to shift late this week. Short Term: Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across the Washington Region as humidity begins to increase. The image below is from the latest high-resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) model showing storms firing between 3 and 9 pm.

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“Ring of Fire”: Afternoon Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible through Sunday; Relief In Sight Next Week!

The upper level ridge of high pressure which is responsible for the ongoing heat wave across much of the nation produces sinking air from the upper levels of our atmosphere all the way to the surface.  Ever wonder why it isn’t storming with such ample heat and humidity? The answer is because it is too warm aloft underneath these upper-level ridges of high pressure.  However, along the edges of these ridges the jet stream is very active and cooler air aloft allows for large-scale thunderstorm development along the northern periphery of these high pressure systems.  This is where the term “Ring of Fire” is coined from in meteorology.

This Afternoon:

-Watching an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System/large complex of thunderstorms) over Ohio and how it evolves as it makes the trip toward the spine of the West Virginia Appalachians. If this system survives, the southwestern portion of the Washington Region would be in the most favored location for thunderstorms that could produce damaging winds this afternoon. Something to watch (if the MCS survives the trip).

Even if this system begins to weaken, its outflow boundaries may be able to produce some isolated thunderstorms across our region, some of which could become severe with damaging winds being the main threat.

Saturday:

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