My Latest Thoughts on Sunday

Another high-impact winter storm heads our way beginning Sunday afternoon. The bitterly cold conditions out ahead of the system on Saturday will allow for a quick thump of accumulating snow before any change over to a wintry mix and or rain in parts of the area.

While it’s too early to have high enough confidence in issuing an official snowfall map, I wanted to share the latest higher resolution national blend of models below.

The mountains of NC, Virginia & West Virginia

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Latest on Thursday Night Snowfall

The Setup

A cold front will slide southward and stall across the DC Area on Thursday, meanwhile a disturbance in the jet stream as well as a coastal low will interact to produce a 4 to 5 hour period of accumulating snow across our region between 10pm Thursday and 5am Friday. A period of heavy snow is likely during a one to two hour window likely between midnight and 2am, when snowfall rates may increase to 2″ per hour.

Snowfall Accumulations

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Big Changes in 48 Hours! Rain, Wind and Potential for Snow

Much Needed Rain

The best chance for substantial rain will arrive late tonight with periods of rain continuing through Sunday. A widespread quarter to one half inch of rain is likely.

Sunday Evening

A strong cold front will bring the threat of damaging winds during the evening and overnight hours on Sunday. As temperatures drop rain may mix with and change over to some light snow

Let’s Talk Snow

Will we see our first flakes of the season Sunday evening through Monday morning? If so, how much?

The good news for snow lovers is that the GFS and Canadian are trending toward a snowier solution on Sunday night. However, the European model doesn’t agree… yet.

The bad news is that even if a period of snow develops Sunday evening, the ground is so warm from the recent mild conditions that it wouldn’t stick to much except for grassy surfaces and cars.

I’d like to see tonight’s run of the European model before I attempt to even get my hopes up.