A Bust for DC, However There’s Reason for Hope Next Weekend

Pissed that you didn’t get your 5 to 8″ in DC? Take a number, get in line, call your local Congressional representative. Forecast models are not perfect nor are meteorologists who pour over the tea leaves wanting to pull their hair out trying to make a forecast.

The high resolution North American model (NAM) below depicts snow showers redeveloping tomorrow afternoon across the Baltimore and Washington Metro Areas where a coating to 2″ of additional accumulation is possible.

February is traditionally our snowiest month of the winter and the pattern is looking wild next weekend as a ridge is forecast to build across the western United States while a  trough builds across the eastern half of the nation with arctic air intruding from Canada.

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Arctic Front Will Usher In Coldest Air of Season and Gusty Winds

A strong cold front will cross the Washington Area this evening ushering in the coldest air of the season thus far. Winds may briefly gust between 45 and 55 mph along with heavy downpours and a clap of thunder as the cold front crosses your community.

Behind the front, gusty winds will continue through the midday hours on Monday while accumulating snow falls across the Allegheny Highlands including places like Garret county Maryland. The images below (courtesy WxBell) show the potential snowfall accumulation from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC).

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Saturday Evening Update on Sloppy Sunday

The latest forecast models all show a period of moderate to heavy precipitation moving into the Washington Region on Sunday afternoon and continuing through the evening before tapering off just after midnight on Monday. Temperature profiles are modest for snow in the immediate D.C. Area where I would expect at most a coating to one inch.

The northern Shenandoah Valley to Leesburg and Baltimore will likely pick up one to three inches of snow with four to six inches (Winter Storm Warning Criteria = 5″ +) across northern Loudoun county in Northern Virginia northeastward toward the Pennsylvania State line.

Latest Short Range North American Model: Future-Cast Radar Sunday 8am through Monday 4am

Latest Short Range North American Model: Possible Snow Accumulation through 4am Monday

Behind this system the story will be BITTER COLD with Record Low Temperatures, especially in areas that receive snow pack.