March Out Like a Lion

The upcoming Easter weekend is looking stunning with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to near 70 degrees.  But first we have to get through a rather rainy Wednesday and January-like temperatures on Thursday and Friday.

The latest high-resolution NAM model (image above, courtesy Pivotal Weather) shows widespread showers with some embedded thunder beginning around 1pm on Wednesday and continuing through the tail end of the evening rush hour.

An arctic front will then approach the DC Area on Wednesday night while a strong area of low pressure develops and rides northward along the front changing rain over to snow in our western zones. Some snow may even mix…

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A Bust for DC, However There’s Reason for Hope Next Weekend

Pissed that you didn’t get your 5 to 8″ in DC? Take a number, get in line, call your local Congressional representative. Forecast models are not perfect nor are meteorologists who pour over the tea leaves wanting to pull their hair out trying to make a forecast.

The high resolution North American model (NAM) below depicts snow showers redeveloping tomorrow afternoon across the Baltimore and Washington Metro Areas where a coating to 2″ of additional accumulation is possible.

February is traditionally our snowiest month of the winter and the pattern is looking wild next weekend as a ridge is forecast to build across the western United States while a  trough builds across the eastern half of the nation with arctic air intruding from Canada.

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Update on Next Week’s Potential Major Winter Storm

An area of low pressure will move out of the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday toward the spine of the Appalachians, meanwhile a coastal storm is forecast to develop off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Wednesday.    The ensemble forecast models are showing an increasing threat of a high-impact winter storm for portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday.

The image below (courtesy WxBell) shows the latest European Ensemble model and depicts quite a spread in placement of the coastal storm on Wednesday of next week. Notice some of the red “Ls” on the map below are located near Hatteras, NC while others are located just off of the Delmarva coast. The exact track will be key regarding how much cold air locks in across the populated 95 corridor from Fredericksburg to Washington and Baltimore.

Model accuracy will begin to increase once the upper level energy that will be responsible for the development of the surface lows actually makes landfall across the west coast of the United States on Monday morning.  There are not enough ocean buoys recording current weather data that the models rely upon for an accurate forecast (garbage in = garbage out). If your mathematical equation has inaccurate input data, the output, or solution will be inaccurate.

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