The Classic Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod Track?

The disturbance over the Pacific Ocean that will be responsible for the eventual exact storm track of the Nor’easter early next week is currently forecast to reach the Puget Sound Saturday around 6PM EST.  At that time the operational forecast models will have the most accurate sampling data.  I would not be surprised to see Winter Storm Watches issued for portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England Saturday afternoon or evening if the current trends continue.  

Watch how last nights run of the GFS (06z/1 am EST) models how this disturbance may interact with the deepening trough that is forecast to dive into the midwest before becoming vertically stacked and negatively tilted over the Northeastern corridor:

Historically the ideal track for Washington’s biggest snow storms is the “Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod track”.  Currently, the GFS and European ensembles are beginning to suggest this possibility.

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Thursday Morning Update on Three Storms

Storm #1 (Friday morning through Noon)

  • Rain showers will mix with snow showers across the northern and western suburbs on Friday. Precipitation will end shortly after noon.  A conversational dusting is possible on grassy surfaces in the far northern and western suburbs with up to an inch possible in the higher terrain, the closer you get to the Pennsylvania line and the Catoctin mountains of northern Maryland. The image below is the latest North-American-Model (courtesy TropicalTidbits). Time stamp begins at 7AM Friday and runs through Noon.

Latest European model keeps accumulating snow (likely on grassy surfaces at elevations below 1500 feet) across extreme northwest Virginia & northern Maryland:

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Get the Sleds Ready… High Ratio Snowfall Headed for Washington!


Winter Weather Advisories were issued for Fairfax, Arlington, Prince William counties.  I will not be surprised to see these expanded further north and west tonight.  This storm is going to cripple central Virginia, the northern neck of Virginia, southern Maryland, the eastern shore of Maryland and coastal New Jersey.

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