Afternoon Damaging Wind Threat for DC Region

The Washington Region remains under a “slight risk” for severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Increasing lapse rates out ahead of an approaching upper level trough along with ample daytime heating will produce the ingredients necessary for storms capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 – 70 mph. Cloud to ground lightning, torrential rain and hail are also possible in these storms.

The high resolution NAM model (image above courtesy Tropical Tidbits) predicts that a line of thunderstorms will approach the Shenandoah Valley around 2pm, pushing eastward into the Washington Region between 3 and 6 pm. I would not be surprised to see a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for our region during the early afternoon hours.


DC Area Under Slight Risk for Severe Storms on Wednesday

Storms will fire again this afternoon with about 50% coverage, meaning about half of us will remain dry and half of us will get relief from the heat. Yesterday’s storms put down some pretty good rainfall totals across Annandale, Burke, Springfield, Newington and Alexandria in Fairfax County with some locations picking up over an inch of rain there.

The image below is from the latest high-resolution North American Model showing where storms may fire this afternoon.

If you didn’t get wet yesterday afternoon and miss out on the storms today in your back yard, storms are forecast to be more widespread on Wednesday afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the Mid-Atlantic (image below, courtesy NOAA) under a “slight risk” for severe storms on Wednesday afternoon and evening with the primary threat being damaging winds.

Stay cool out there!