The Washington Area remains under an “Enhanced” risk of Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon, the image below is courtesy NOAA and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of the immediate Washington Metropolitan Area under an “Enhanced Risk” of Severe Thunderstorms” on Tuesday afternoon.
What does an enhanced risk mean?
The first round of showers and thunderstorms have now cleared the Washington Area with little fanfare outside of some widespread heavy rainfall early this morning. Southerly winds of 20 to 30 mph with occasional gusts over 40 mph are likely due to the strong low-level jet stream located across our region.
The next line of storms should begin to cross the mountains of West Virginia between 14z and 15z (10-11am) then moving into the Shenandoah Valley just after 15z (11am) before moving rapidly through the Washington Area between 16z and 18z (12pm and 2pm).
This line of thunderstorms will also accompany the actual cold front and increasing values of Energy Helicity Index (one of the more popular indices to look at when determining where thunderstorms are most capable of spawning tornadoes).