We have been stuck in Phase 7 of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) this month and that combined with the ongoing La Nina has been responsible for the mild, snow-less conditions across the Mid-Atlantic.
Are things about to turn the corner with Winter returning as we head into March? The image above is the latest MJO forecast from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) model. Look closely and you can see that we have been stuck in phase 7 (mild in the east) for much of February. We are forecast to move into phase 8, before heading into phase 1 and 2 (phase 8, 1 and 2 favor cooler than average temperatures in the eastern United States).