High Pressure will be strengthening aloft producing sinking air and allowing for a five to seven-day stretch of temperatures at or above 90 degrees. The peak of the heat wave will likely arrive just in time for the fourth of July with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 90s Monday through Thursday.
After what feels like a relentless Summer with record heat and humidity across the Eastern Seaboard, there is hope that as we head into November the pattern may flip.
The latest CFS (Climate Forecast System) model for temperature anomalies (departure from average) forecast the warmth to continue through the end of October for the eastern half of the nation:
Next 10 days:
The upper level ridge of high pressure which is responsible for the ongoing heat wave across much of the nation produces sinking air from the upper levels of our atmosphere all the way to the surface. Ever wonder why it isn’t storming with such ample heat and humidity? The answer is because it is too warm aloft underneath these upper-level ridges of high pressure. However, along the edges of these ridges the jet stream is very active and cooler air aloft allows for large-scale thunderstorm development along the northern periphery of these high pressure systems. This is where the term “Ring of Fire” is coined from in meteorology.
-Watching an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System/large complex of thunderstorms) over Ohio and how it evolves as it makes the trip toward the spine of the West Virginia Appalachians. If this system survives, the southwestern portion of the Washington Region would be in the most favored location for thunderstorms that could produce damaging winds this afternoon. Something to watch (if the MCS survives the trip).
Even if this system begins to weaken, its outflow boundaries may be able to produce some isolated thunderstorms across our region, some of which could become severe with damaging winds being the main threat.