Tuesday Update: Major Snow Storm for Some, Major Ice Storm for Others?

This is a very low confidence forecast as the latest forecast models continue to indicate a more inland track of the low pressure system which is increasing the threat of sleet and freezing rain and drastically cutting down on snowfall accumulations! My map below includes Snow, Sleet (frozen rain drops) and Freezing Rain.

Any deviation in track of the area of low pressure further to the west or back to the east will have a drastic impact on whether we are digging out from snow or sleet (or both), or losing power from ice accretion from freezing rain.

Here’s a look at the latest forecast models and what they are showing for potential snowfall accumulations:

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Heavy Rain Thursday | 2 to 3″ Possible Across Portions of the DMV

Just what you want to hear as a Washington D.C. Area Commuter:  “Heavy Rain” + Thursday + Rush Hour = Nightmare Commute!

The heaviest rain is currently forecast to begin during the second half of the morning rush hour; with that said, the entire morning rush hour will feature widespread showers with embedded pockets of moderate rain, especially south and east of D.C.

The image below from the latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR, courtesy weathermodels.com) shows a heavy band of rain moving into the D.C. metro area at 9am.

Future-Cast Radar Simulation from 9am Thursday through 3am Friday

How Much Rain could Fall Across Your Neighborhood?

The latest European model is dropping between 1 and 3″ of rain with the heaviest axis currently expected across the western suburbs and eastern-facing slopes of the Blue Ridge mountains where some flooding of creeks, streams and urban areas is possible.

Rain/Snow/Graupel “Squalls” Possible on Friday across the D.C. Metro Area

A disturbance will cross the Blue Ridge mountains during the late morning hours on Friday.  This may kick off gusty winds and some fast-moving showers of rain, snow or graupel (snow flakes that partially melt and then freeze).

Accumulating snow will fall across interior portions of the Northeast and west of the Allegheny Front on Friday and Saturday: