Big Changes Possible Late Week as Powerful Nor’easter May Threaten Mid-Atlantic Coast

Last week I warned that the upper-level pattern was showing signs of becoming blocked and a pattern change to below- average temperatures is likely the second half of April across much of the eastern United States.

Potent Nor’easter May Impact Mid-Atlantic and New England Friday and Saturday

A very potent upper-level low pressure system depicted in the forecast model above (courtesy pivotal weather) will slide across the northern Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday, likely spawning the development of a coastal storm (Nor’easter) on Friday.

Depending upon the exact track of this system wet snow may accumulate in spots from the Alleghenies to the Poconos with a cold rain, gusty winds, and temperatures running twenty degrees below average (or more) for the lower elevations.

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March Out Like a Lion

The upcoming Easter weekend is looking stunning with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to near 70 degrees.  But first we have to get through a rather rainy Wednesday and January-like temperatures on Thursday and Friday.

The latest high-resolution NAM model (image above, courtesy Pivotal Weather) shows widespread showers with some embedded thunder beginning around 1pm on Wednesday and continuing through the tail end of the evening rush hour.

An arctic front will then approach the DC Area on Wednesday night while a strong area of low pressure develops and rides northward along the front changing rain over to snow in our western zones. Some snow may even mix…

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Potential for Significant Ice Storm on Monday

The atmosphere out ahead of Monday’s storm system will be very dry with dew points likely starting out in the single digits and teens. As warmer air aloft begins to glide on top of the very cold, dry air at the surface, some forecast models (such as the latest NAM model below) are hinting at a nasty ice storm developing, especially for locations north and west of interstate 95 .

Even in DC, advisory level icing of up to a tenth of an inch is looking likely if the current forecast models are accurate. Snow and sleet will likely break out on Monday afternoon, rapidly changing over to freezing rain in the metro area with snow potentially holding on a bit longer across northern Maryland before the change over to ice.

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