Latest on Tropical Storm ETA

The image below is from the latest European Prediction System (courtesy Wxbell).  These are called “spaghetti models” and highlight uncertainty in track.  The important line to follow is the black line (Ensemble Mean).

The American Ensemble Model (GEFS) below shows a similar potential track of ETA near the Keys and then eventually moving north or northeast toward the northeastern Gulf. ETA should eventually get picked up by a trough digging into the United States later this week and could bring some heavy rainfall to our area on Thursday.

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Latest Climate Models Indicate Potential Cool Down across Eastern United States late October into early November

After what feels like a relentless Summer with record heat and humidity across the Eastern Seaboard, there is hope that as we head into November the pattern may flip.

The latest CFS (Climate Forecast System) model for temperature anomalies (departure from average) forecast the warmth to continue through the end of October for the eastern half of the nation:

Next 10 days:

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October Warmth across Eastern United States Matches La Nina Analogs

The image below courtesy tropical tidbits shows the upper-level height anomalies through October 21st (according to the latest Global Forecast Ensemble System). 

Notice the continuous bright orange colors over the northeastern United States indicative of an upper-level ridge of high pressure with a trough (dip in the jet stream) over the western United States.

This pattern favors mild Indian Summer weather to continue through the next 10 to 20 days.

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