Your Washington Area Halloween Forecast

What can trick-or-treaters expect tomorrow evening? If the latest high-resolution forecast models prove accurate – there may be a break in the rain between 6 and 9 PM. The image below is from the latest North American Model (courtesy WxBell) showing steady rains across the D.C. Region at 3pm pulling north of the metro area by 6pm.

The “Scariest” portion of your Halloween may come from a loss of power as a strong squall line barrels through our region between 9pm and midnight potentially producing wind gusts over 60 mph.

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Squall Line could deliver threat of damaging wind gusts this Evening

A cold front accompanied by a squall line will approach the Washington Region late this evening.  Damaging wind gusts are possible, especially just south and west of the Washington Region across north-central Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley.  A strong low-level jet stream and wind shear (winds changing direction and speed with altitude) would typically indicate the potential for severe thunderstorms (some containing a tornado threat) however the missing ingredient will be instability (CAPE) as the sun will have set well before the arrival of the cold front.  Regardless, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the DC Region under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat between 9 PM and 1 AM late this evening.

Timing the arrival of the squall line (a line of convection containing gusty winds and heavy rainfall):

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Several chances of Much-Needed Rainfall and trending Cooler through Halloween

A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to our region overnight Monday into the midday hours on Tuesday. The image below (courtesy tropicaltidbits) is from the latest North American Model (NAM) and shows lines of showers and thunderstorms moving northeast out of the mountains into the Washington Area late Monday night through the midday hours on Tuesday.

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