Noteworthy Shift West in Track of Overnight Ensembles … Will the Trend Continue or Reverse?

The energy in the atmosphere responsible for the evolution of this weekends storm system moved onshore and I’ll be curious to see if the recent shift to a more inland (less snow for DC) track holds consistent.

The GFS Ensembles have also trended west with an inland track

GFS Ensembles

If these trends were to verify, downtown DC would be looking at a 2-4” snow before a change over to sleet and rain… a total waste of precipitation when we will have such cold antecedent conditions on Saturday with lows in the teens and highs in the 20s.

On the other hand, a wobble east in track of even 25 miles would produce high impact accumulation in the District. This evening’s runs of the European model will be closely watched. Stay tuned.