From Record Highs Today to Snow Tonight and Monday

With temperatures climbing into the mid 60s today it is hard to believe that Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the overnight hours through Monday. The Mid-Atlantic is no stranger to drastic swings in weather, buckle up it’s going to be a wild next 24 hours.

Temperatures will plunge after midnight falling into the upper 20s by Monday morning in the suburbs and to near 32° in DC as a strong cold front moves through.

Timing

Rain will develop after midnight tonight and is forecast to begin mixing with and then change over to snow (heavy at times) as temperatures drop.

Probability of Accumulation

Probability of 6” or more of snowfall accumulation
Probability of 3” or more of snowfall accumulation

All of the forecast models depicted a northward jump in storm track overnight with DC’s northern suburbs right on the edge. The recent warm ground make the accumulation forecast tricky, however if snow can fall heavily enough, slick roads are likely, especially in the colder suburbs.

Overnight run of the European Model
GFS is the most bullish
European shows significant snow storm as well
National Blend of Models (more likely scenario)

I am waiting to see the latest European model and will issue my snow map midday. Stay Tuned.