The first half of the work week could be extremely challenging across much of the Washington Region due to the potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms with torrential rain and additional flash flooding.
Round One on Monday
A warm front is currently lifting northward out of central Virginia and will stall across the DC Area on Monday. Numerous showers and Thunderstorms are likely across the DC Metropolitan Area, especially during the morning and afternoon.
Heavy rain may redevelop across the Shenandoah Valley during the evening hours, pushing northward into the Panhandle of West Virginia and Maryland.
Timing the Heavy Rain on Monday
Potential Rainfall Amounts over the next 24 Hours:
Don’t pay too much attention to specifics below as exactly where thunderstorms form are hard to predict. Areas that were impacted by Sunday morning’s flash flooding are currently under the Flash Flood Watch on Monday.
Watching the Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred
Tropical Storm Fred will likely make landfall in the Panhandle of Florida before its moisture is potentially pulled up the spine of the Appalachian mountains on Tuesday into Wednesday.
Fred’s Potential Impacts on the Washington Area
If Fred’s remnants do track just west of the DC Area Tuesday night into Wednesday, wind shear will increase in the atmosphere raising the concern for some thunderstorms to become severe with tornadoes.
Flooding Potential Increases Again Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night
The ground remains very hard due to the recent lack of steady/light rain. If the remnants of Fred do track close enough to the DC Region, multiple rounds of thunderstorms could drop copious amounts of rain, exacerbating the flooding situation. While parts of the Mid-Atlantic need some rain, we could use a steadier/light soaking rain versus the deluge that simply runs off and causes flooding of homes and businesses.
The Weather Prediction Center has expanded the “Excessive Rainfall Outlook” into the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday.
The exact track of the remnants of Fred will need to be watched very closely.