Timing Today’s Severe Thunderstorm Risk

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the northern Shenandoah Valley under a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms today, with a Marginal Risk extending eastward into northern Virginia and northern Maryland.

Latest High-Resolution Guidance Timing the Storms

The latest High-Resolution-Rapid-Refresh (image below courtesy PivotalWx) shows strong to severe storms racing southeast out of southwestern Pennsylvania later this afternoon. These storms will have the potential to produce damaging winds in excess of 60 to 70 mph.

The latest North American Model (NAM)

The latest NAM model agrees with the strong storms remaining mainly west of the Blue Ridge mountains this afternoon but does indicate that today’s heat and humidity will touch off some thunderstorms after midnight further east into the immediate DC Metropolitan Area.