Update on Thursday Severe Storm Threat

Latest Future-cast Radar from the North American Model 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop after midnight tonight as warm air advection begins to move northward into our region.

There should be a break from the rain during the morning hours on Thursday and depending upon how much sunshine we see, another line of strong to severe thunderstorms looks to impact our region during the afternoon hours (image above, courtesy PivotalWx).

Convective Potential Energy Key to Forecast

The image below suggests that the greatest surface based convective available potential energy (CAPE) for severe storm production will occur after 2pm on Thursday, ending around 8pm.

These models run every 6 hours, so again if the morning cloud cover were to hold stronger on Thursday, the threat could decrease across our region.

An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out on Thursday, but will again depend upon how much sunshine we get in the morning hours.