This morning’s ample sunshine has primed the atmosphere with dew points in the 60s and temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 80s. A disturbance will slide east across the Washington Area between 4pm and 6pm likely producing scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms.
Strong thunderstorms are likely this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic States (image below courtesy Pivotal Weather)
The next image shows a closer look at when thunderstorms may arrive in your neighborhood.
Notice the storms igniting around the Blue Ridge mountains and then pushing eastward across Northern Virginia, DC and suburban Maryland. Some storms may produce damaging winds in excess of 58 mph and hail.
A strong cold front will move across the DC Area Wednesday, likely touching off another (more widespread) round of strong thunderstorms. Timing of the cold front passage will be key with an arrival earlier in the morning reducing the threat of widespread severe weather and a later arrival in the afternoon increasing the risk.
The better chance for severe storms on Wednesday will be for locations along/east of interstate 95 where the cold front may not clear until mid to late afternoon. Regardless, the entire region could see storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail on Wednesday before much cooler weather arrives for Thursday.