Another Wintry Mess on Thursday However Snowfall Accumulation Amounts Remain Uncertain

Thursday is looking like a mess across the DC Region as another potent, moisture-rich, winter storm moves our way.  All of the forecast models start the DC area with accumulating snow Wednesday night through Thursday morning before a change over to either sleet or freezing rain occurs. There is the potential for significant accumulations of snow, sleet and freezing rain.

GFS Ensemble (American) showing 30 ensembles (opinions) for snowfall potential:

Next up is the Canadian ensemble model which shows quite a spread in snowfall accumulation:

The fifty European ensembles below also show quite a spread in potential snowfall accumulation as well. 

I’d like the current storm impacting our area to exit the region tomorrow and the models to initialize once the cold front slides through before I ‘trust’ the models this far out that predict potential snowfall.  A lot can change in 2-3 days and I do believe that the Interstate 95 corridor will receive more ice than snow with this system.