I have a medium-high confidence that the snowfall totals below will materialize by Sunday Evening by 8PM. I have looked at all of the deterministic forecast models from the American (GFS, Navy) to the European to the Canadian and the all important ensembles.
The million dollar question remains: How close to the coast does the secondary storm form and how strong will it be?
The heaviest snow on Sunday will occur across our southwestern zones from Charlottesville to Fredericksburg and across the Potomac river into southern Maryland where 4 to as much as 8″ of snow is likely before a lull in the precipitation develops across these areas on Sunday night.
Most models show snow redeveloping across northern Virginia, DC, points north during the pre-dawn hours on Monday and continuing through the day on Monday before tapering to flurries on Tuesday.
Monday is still three days out — I’d like to see another run of the European and GFS models tonight before I put up a total snowfall accumulation map for the entirety of this winter storm.
Yes there is the potential that someone in our region will wind up with 8 to 12″+ of snow… (best chance right now being from northeast Maryland to the Jersey Shore) but that will be highly dependent on the evolution of Monday’s storm system. Some models have trended with heavy snow continuing through the immediate Washington Area all day on Monday so even in DC… there could be up to a foot. Too soon to make any promises…I’ll update tomorrow morning.