Cold December Continues with Potential Coastal Storm Next Week

Strong La Nina winters on average have not typically produced much in the way of snow across the Washington Area during the winter season.  With that said, there are a few outlier years, such as the winter of 1995-96 (a moderate strength La Nina winter).  The colder than average pattern that we are currently experiencing thanks to a persistent trough or dip in the jet stream over the eastern United States is providing a window of time for some potential fun along the east coast next week.

Highs on  Friday and Saturday will rise to near 60 degrees until the next cold front moves through our region on Sunday dropping temperatures back down to slightly below seasonal averages. Several waves of low pressure may develop along the Gulf coast during the middle to later half of next week, potentially becoming coastal storms off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

The next four images are from the Ensemble model runs from the GFS, Canadian and European Models (courtesy WxBell). Each of the ensemble models suggest that snow may fall somewhere from the Mid-Atlantic to New England during the middle to later half of next week. The exact track of any storm systems that do form and how quickly they strengthen will determine whether or not the Washington Area receives rain, snow or nothing at all.

GFS Ensemble for potential Snowfall Accumulation through Thursday Evening (18 December):

Canadian Ensemble for potential Snowfall Accumulation through Thursday Evening (18 December):

Finally, the European Ensembles (there are 50 of them) for potential Snowfall through Thursday Evening (18 December):

As of now, the time frame i am watching closely is Tuesday through Thursday of next week. Stay tuned.