The Washington Region remains under a “slight risk” for severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Increasing lapse rates out ahead of an approaching upper level trough along with ample daytime heating will produce the ingredients necessary for storms capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 – 70 mph. Cloud to ground lightning, torrential rain and hail are also possible in these storms.
The high resolution NAM model (image above courtesy Tropical Tidbits) predicts that a line of thunderstorms will approach the Shenandoah Valley around 2pm, pushing eastward into the Washington Region between 3 and 6 pm. I would not be surprised to see a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for our region during the early afternoon hours.