The forecast models have continued their bullish predictions during the past 24 hours with the European Model now dumping upwards of 2 to 4″ of rain along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge mountains in a short period of time. The latest North American Model (NAM) below (image courtesy Tropical Tidbits) shows a line of storms producing torrential rainfall slowly moving eastward across the Washington Region on Thursday. The heaviest rain is forecast to move across the Blue Ridge mountains between 6 and 8 am before sliding into the immediate Washington Area between 9am and 12pm and reaching the Chesapeake Bay between 12pm and 2pm.
So how much rain could fall in your area?
Potential Rainfall Totals Thursday (image courtesy Pivotal Weather)
Notice in the image below, the latest European model shows a strip of yellow along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge mountains… indicating where upwards of 4″ of rain could fall in a short period of time!
I would not be surprised to see Flash Flood Watches issued by the National Weather Service for Thursday. Those of you who live along the Blue Ridge and eastern slopes should be prepared for the potential of creeks and streams rapidly rising and the potential for washed out roadways.
Those of you across the immediate Washington Area are not out of the woods where between 2 and 3″ of rain will likely cause flash flooding of low-lying areas, streams, creeks and urban locations where poor drainage is typically a problem. Finally, I am concerned that this amount of widespread rainfall will likely cause river flooding along the Potomac basin and its tributaries.
Be vigilant on Thursday and plan to avoid being out during this event, if you have to be out and about and come across flooded roadways, turn around don’t drown.