Thursday Heavy Rain and Flooding Threat

Here we go again! Another system will slide through the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday producing some very heavy rain in a short period of time. The image below from the latest European Forecast Model (courtesy Pivotal Weather) shows a band of some very heavy rainfall (and embedded thunderstorms) moving through during the early morning hours across our western mountain zones and into the metro area during the mid to late morning hours.

 

Dew points ahead of the cold front will rise into the mid 60s which will really make it feel quite muggy outside and will prime the atmosphere for torrential rainfall. In addition, a strong jet stream aloft will aid in lift potentially producing some thunderstorms within the line of heavy rain.

Line of Heavy Rain and Storms Pushing through the DC Area on Thursday

A closer look at the Washington Area shows a line of some very heavy rainfall moving through the metro area during the morning hours.  The heavy rain and storms will begin earlier in the morning across the Shenandoah Valley and later in the afternoon across the Chesapeake Bay.

Potential Rainfall Totals

This storm system has the potential to drop between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain in several hours.  Concerns for flash flooding of creeks, streams and of low-lying, poor drainage areas may be realized on Thursday especially after our region has already received two soaking rain events during the past week.