Flash Flooding Likely Thursday

The forecast models have continued their bullish predictions during the past 24 hours with the European Model now dumping upwards of 2 to 4″ of rain along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge mountains in a short period of time. The latest North American Model (NAM) below (image courtesy Tropical Tidbits) shows a line of storms producing torrential rainfall slowly moving eastward across the Washington Region on Thursday. The heaviest rain is forecast to move across the Blue Ridge mountains between 6 and 8 am before sliding into the immediate Washington Area between 9am and 12pm and reaching the Chesapeake Bay between 12pm and 2pm.

So how much rain could fall in your area?

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Thursday Heavy Rain and Flooding Threat

Here we go again! Another system will slide through the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday producing some very heavy rain in a short period of time. The image below from the latest European Forecast Model (courtesy Pivotal Weather) shows a band of some very heavy rainfall (and embedded thunderstorms) moving through during the early morning hours across our western mountain zones and into the metro area during the mid to late morning hours.

 

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Widespread Storms Sunday Morning to Increase Flooding Concerns

The next storm system will impact the Mid-Atlantic states beginning overnight Saturday continuing through much of the day on Sunday. The image below (courtesy Pivotal Weather) is from the latest European Forecast Model depicting a strong low pressure system tracking northeast from the Tennessee Valley to Southern New England. Bottom Line: A period of very heavy rainfall with widespread embedded thunderstorms could drop enough rain over a short period of time on Sunday morning to produce flooding of creeks, streams and and urban areas that are low-lying with poor drainage. 

Timing the Strongest Thunderstorms

The latest North American Model (next image courtesy Tropical Tidbits) is forecasting widespread thunderstorms to move across the Washington Region from south to north between 10z (6am) and 17z (1pm). The exact time frame of heaviest rain/storms may change a bit with future forecast model updates.

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