Heavy Rain Thursday | 2 to 3″ Possible Across Portions of the DMV

Just what you want to hear as a Washington D.C. Area Commuter:  “Heavy Rain” + Thursday + Rush Hour = Nightmare Commute!

The heaviest rain is currently forecast to begin during the second half of the morning rush hour; with that said, the entire morning rush hour will feature widespread showers with embedded pockets of moderate rain, especially south and east of D.C.

The image below from the latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR, courtesy weathermodels.com) shows a heavy band of rain moving into the D.C. metro area at 9am.

Future-Cast Radar Simulation from 9am Thursday through 3am Friday

How Much Rain could Fall Across Your Neighborhood?

The latest European model is dropping between 1 and 3″ of rain with the heaviest axis currently expected across the western suburbs and eastern-facing slopes of the Blue Ridge mountains where some flooding of creeks, streams and urban areas is possible.

Rain/Snow/Graupel “Squalls” Possible on Friday across the D.C. Metro Area

A disturbance will cross the Blue Ridge mountains during the late morning hours on Friday.  This may kick off gusty winds and some fast-moving showers of rain, snow or graupel (snow flakes that partially melt and then freeze).

Accumulating snow will fall across interior portions of the Northeast and west of the Allegheny Front on Friday and Saturday:

 

 


Get Ready Bos-Wash: Strong Late-Season Nor’easter will bring Heavy Rain & Snow to the Northeast!

The fifty-five million residents of the Northeast Megalopolis extending from Boston’s northern suburbs southwestward to Washington’s northern Virginia suburbs (also sometimes referred to as “Bos-Wash“) may be once again cursing Punxsutawney Phil who predicted an early start to Spring.  A strong, late-season Nor’easter will hammer portions of the Northeast with heavy rain, heavy snow, high winds and much colder temperatures in its wake beginning on Thursday and potentially not wrapping up until late week across coastal northern New England. In fact, this may be one of two systems to watch with the second storm  potentially impacting the Washington Region 9-11 days from now.

The first image (courtesy WxBell) shows a coastal storm rapidly developing near Cape Hatteras on Thursday:

Nor’easter will rapidly strengthen as is it phases with a sharp trough of low pressure (dip in the jet stream) over eastern Canada. This system may “bomb out” as it rapidly deepens and stalls near Halifax/Nova Scotia Friday night through Saturday:

The image below (courtesy weathermodels) shows the Nor’easter developing near Cape Hatteras before tracking northeast towards Nova Scotia.

Closer view of the Northeast:

European Ensembles (images below) showing 50 potential snowfall accumulation outcomes through this upcoming weekend.  These maps will definitely change as the exact track, speed and how quickly this storm system deepens become more clear in time (this storm hasn’t even formed yet).

Right now I am expecting a rain event in Washington, however some wet snow is not out of the realm of possibility across the Potomac Highlands if this storm system develops more rapidly (TBD).

Temperatures behind this system will kill your “early spring” plans to plant any sensitive flowers; I highly recommend hold off on planting anything ‘sensitive’ until mid April!

Temperature Anomalies (departure from average) Friday afternoon through Sunday morning:


A Few Snow Showers Possible Northwest of DC Sunday Evening

A fast-moving clipper is projected to pass just north or very close to the Washington Area on Sunday evening, likely touching off scattered showers or a few passing snow flurries. The latest European model (image below courtesy weathermodels.com) indicates this will likely remain a conversational event only with no issues on area roadways.

The North American Model (NAM) model (image below) shows rain (green) and snow showers (blue) moving through between 4pm Sunday and 2am Monday. Those of you from Garrett county eastward toward Washington county in northern Maryland could pick up a dusting from this fast-moving system.

The work week ahead will start off unseasonably cold with a gradual warm up expected Thursday and Friday.

Mid-Week Coastal Storm?

The European Ensemble Prediction System (image below courtesy WxBell) continues to develop a coastal storm offshore on Wednesday into Thursday.  A few of the red “Ls” in the image below represent the potential location of a coastal low pressure system.  Notice that a minority of these Ls in the image below are located off of the Delmarva coast. Forecast models can change with time, so while I’m not hopeful that a coastal storm will impact our region it’s something to keep an eye on.  Nova Scotia will likely get slammed by a Nor’easter as phasing between the southern and northern branches of the jet stream occur well to our north and east of D.C. as has been the case this entire winter.