If you’re ready for Spring, be patient, the medium-range forecast models indicate that unseasonably cold weather will return to a large portion of the United States as we head into the first full week of March.
The image above, (courtesy weathermodels.com) shows the 5-day ensemble mean of temperature anomalies the first ten days of March and it is looking rather cold across a large portion of the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic.
Arctic Blast Likely
The following image shows temperatures 01-March through 06-March. Notice how below-freezing temperatures are forecast to infiltrate as far south as the north-central Gulf coast with below-zero temperatures impacting portions of the Upper-Midwest.
Potential East Coast Storm around 06-March?
The image below shows the upper-level pattern at 500mb the afternoon of Wednesday, 06-March. It is interesting that a ridge of high pressure may try to build along the spine of the Continental Divide while an deep-trough of low pressure forms along the southeast coast. If the northern trough across eastern Canada were able to align (phase) with this southern trough – there could be the potential for an east coast snow storm.
The next image shows the European Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) on the morning of Wednesday, 06-March.
Notice the widely spread clustering of the red Ls off of the east coast, an indication that a coastal storm may develop during this time frame.
This overall pattern is definitely something to watch as we move into early March.