The latest ensemble guidance below (images, courtesy Wxbell.com) continues to show the higher probability of accumulating snow across central Virginia (No!) I was waiting to see the 18z run to verify if the shift southward in track overnight would continue (which it did).
A few of the ensemble images creep the snow just far enough north to drop a coating to 2″ in D.C. but I would error on the side of caution with this one as I have probably already upset my fellow snow-lovers out there with my last where a 2 to 4″ snow event looked likely.
The control run (below) matches up nicely with an “average” of the individual ensembles above:
Latest Operational European Model:
There is still some time for the models to track this storm a bit further north… all it would take is a jog northward in track of about 30 miles and D.C. Metro would be in the bulls-eye. If however the current track holds those of you in Fredericksburg, VA and southern Maryland have the best shot of seeing snow accumulations of 1 to 3″ on Saturday morning.