Major Pattern Change for Mid-Atlantic Next Weekend

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is finally moving out of phase 7 and back into phase 8 this weekend. The image above shows warmer than average temperature anomalies over the Eastern United States in phase 7 with cooler than average temperatures in phase 8. You need cold air for wintry weather and with a very active storm pattern continuing, things are looking very interesting this weekend and beyond.

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Headed Negative

For my loyal snow-lovers who follow me, you know that during the second half of winter, monitoring the NAO index becomes a big deal because “Snowmageddons” and “Snowpocalypses” have been bred from blocking over Greenland and the North Atlantic. The good news is that the ensembles show the NAO moving from positive to neutral or negative as we head into President’s Day Weekend! Some of our biggest snow storms have occurred around President’s Day (think February 2003).

European Ensembles for Snow

I find it amusing that several of the European Ensembles which showed no snow pack across the D.C. Area are now building a “glacier”  (see image below) as we head from next weekend and beyond. I’m not ready to celebrate but am beginning to wonder if we are finally turning the corner in what has been an annoying storm track (to our west).

Time will tell… in the mean time, watch the forecast very closely this coming weekend (President’s Day weekend) … as the pattern is looking active and interesting around here!