Breaking News: Sometimes It Snows during the Winter

I’m going to be honest that i don’t foresee the upper-level pattern phasing in time for a decent snowfall in D.C. points north.

Saturday Afternoon and Evening “Overrunning Event – Light snow breaks out Saturday late afternoon mainly across the interstate 66 corridor/points north with 1″ of snow accumulating. Over-running occurs when warm air rises on top of cold air at the surface.

Saturday Night “Lull– Lift associated with overrunning weakens as coastal low begins to form off the NC coast.

Sunday “Snow Storm” (South of DC) – Coastal storm develops, but slips too far out to sea (because the northern branch of the jet stream is not phasing with the southern stream energy) keeping heavy snow threat across central Virginia (yes those of you who live along a line from Charlottesville, Virginia to St. Mary’s county in Maryland).

My rather pessimistic suspicion is a result of looking closely at some of the latest individual ensembles below (courtesy WxBell):

Some of these scream “DC Snow-Hole”

The Mean of all the 50 ensembles:

Averaging a couple of “bad eggs” with the good assets is what lead to the financial crisis in 2008, in other words, the “mean” of all 50 ensembles (below) is still no guarantee that 2 to 4″ will creep in as far north as D.C.

Wider View of the Eastern United States:

And the Schizophrenic Global Forecast System (GFS) Ensemble:

Do we have a light snow event coming? Yes.

Will snow plows be needed? Yes.

Should a light snow event like this be a major deal for the cosmopolitan “Capital of the Free World”? Hell No, unless of course you transplanted here from the South.

Why does every snow event here in DC cause everyone to panic or get heartburn? Because nobody wants to be wrong with their forecast and we are surrounded by 5 million people who will literally crucify the poor meteorologist when the forecast doesn’t turn out exactly the way in which the individual imagined it.