I’m going to be honest that i don’t foresee the upper-level pattern phasing in time for a decent snowfall in D.C. points north.
Saturday Afternoon and Evening “Overrunning Event“ – Light snow breaks out Saturday late afternoon mainly across the interstate 66 corridor/points north with 1″ of snow accumulating. Over-running occurs when warm air rises on top of cold air at the surface.
Saturday Night “Lull“– Lift associated with overrunning weakens as coastal low begins to form off the NC coast.
Sunday “Snow Storm” (South of DC) – Coastal storm develops, but slips too far out to sea (because the northern branch of the jet stream is not phasing with the southern stream energy) keeping heavy snow threat across central Virginia (yes those of you who live along a line from Charlottesville, Virginia to St. Mary’s county in Maryland).
My rather pessimistic suspicion is a result of looking closely at some of the latest individual ensembles below (courtesy WxBell):
Some of these scream “DC Snow-Hole”