Folks, we’ve been burned once earlier in December, and I will not really start looking closely at the Ensemble guidance (pick your favorite model) until the mid-level disturbance that will ultimately be responsible for the evolution of the track of any surface low pressure system clears the U.S. west coast overnight on Wednesday.
For those of you who want to dream… the following images show current ensemble guidance on how much snow could potentially fall (still a very wide range of scenarios)
The latest European Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) showing the first potential 25 outcomes out of 50:
As you can see, some ensembles show over 10″ falling on DC while other individual ensembles show only a dusting.
Next 25 potential outcomes from the European EPS:
The image below shows the mean of all 50 Ensembles shown above: At this time the best chance for plowable snow this weekend remains south of DC.
The latest United States (U.S) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS):
Latest Canadian GEM:
More updates to come as the ensembles (my favorite being the European) begin to show more consistency among each individual member. In English: If on Thursday morning a majority of the 50 individual ensembles (that you just looked at above) show a similar outcome… I’m on board. Until then, the good news is there is a chance of snow this weekend and the medium to long-range pattern looks favorable for much colder weather (an ingredient clearly necessary to turn all this nasty rain into a winter wonderland).