Thursday Update on Hurricane Florence

Latest on Track:

The latest global ensemble (spaghetti) models continue to indicate that Hurricane Florence will make landfall along the Carolina coast.  After landfall, several of the latest operational models suggest that there is the potential for impacts in the Washington Region early to mid next week in the form of heavy rain.

Latest run of the European Forecast Model:

After Florence makes Landfall, high pressure building over New England should eventually move offshore as a trough approaches from the Midwest.  The exact timing of the movement of these features remains uncertain and will dictate when the remnants of Florence track to the north and northeast and where in the Mid-Atlantic heavy rain could occur.  The latest European forecast model indicates this turn to the north/northeast may occur on Monday. If this verifies, the remnant circulation of Florence and heavy rainfall may impact portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday.

Latest Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Potential Rainfall Totals through Thursday morning 20-September:

As of this morning, there is the potential for a widespread two to four inches of rain across the Washington Region sometime during the early to middle portion of next week, if the remnants of Florence do in fact track in our direction.