The latest forecast models indicate Florence will make landfall along the Carolina coast before slowly drifting or stalling along the coast and then eventually tracking toward the northwest and north next week. The exact details of when the turn happens and eventual path of the remnants (heavy rain threat) of Florence are still uncertain. For the Washington area, the threat of any impact from wind has significantly decreased with the Carolina coast taking a direct hit. The million dollar question for our area right now is whether or not the remnants of Florence drench our area with heavy rain next week, causing flooding issues. The image above is the latest run of the European model.
Latest forecast model “spaghetti charts” continue to show a tricky forecast once the system nears the Carolina coast:
The image below shows all the global models (European, UK, American, etc.)
Latest Global Forecast Ensemble System (GEFS):
In Summary: The threat of a direct hit on the Washington Region remains very low at this time with the Carolina coastline continuing to be “ground-zero” for the destructive winds of Florence. A trough of low pressure and cold front will begin approaching the east coast during the Tuesday – Thursday time frame next week. How quickly the front is able to pick up the remnants of Florence’s moisture will be key to how much rain falls here in Washington next week.